谁能赢下最后的战争（残页） Who Wins the Last War (Torn Page)

看样子是古代悬锋城军事读物的残页。封面上有一行小字：「如果我们现在不能生活在未来，那么未来我们就会生活在过去。」 Looks like a page from a military tome in ancient Castrum Kremnos. "If we can't live in future right now, then in the future, we will live in t

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不论我们做什么事情，经验总归是重要的；但面对黑潮，这可能是个例外。一个陶器师傅的手艺胜过他所有的弟子是很正常的事——可一个从黑潮中活下来的人，下一次却未必还能有如此幸运。面对黑潮这种似乎有自身意识的自然灾害（这个说法没有定论，但黑潮总会挑选最脆弱的环节加以袭击，因此笔者倾向于采信），如果我们过于依赖「上一次的经验」和惯性思维，受到的损失只可能越来越大。

No matter what we do, experience is essential. However, that might not hold true when it comes to the black tide. Imagine a master potter effortlessly surpassing his apprentices — experience usually counts. But surviving the black tide once doesn't guarantee safety the next time. Confronting this seemingly sentient natural disaster — though this idea is not confirmed, the black tide always strikes at our weakest points, and that's why I'm inclined to believe in this proposition — requires more than just relying on past experience and habitual thinking. Doing so will only lead to greater losses.

我们前面已经总结过，黑潮的危害主要由两部分构成：

As we have already discussed, the hazards posed by the black tide encompass two major components:

（一）难以解释的黑潮本身；

(I) The inexplicable black tide itself

（二）黑潮内出现的可怖怪物。

(II) The terrifying creatures that emerge from the black tide

当黑潮规模较小时，通过肃清黑潮内的怪物，我们的确可以让黑潮在一时一地消退；可一旦怪物涌现的速度超过我们投入兵力的速度，黑潮就会迅速扩大、变得无法抑制。这使得「如何判断黑潮的规模」成了一个巨大的问题——如果低估了它，势必会有相当数量的优秀战士因为轻敌而白白牺牲；可如果高估了，迁移民众和财产的成本也会白白浪费，而且难免让大家的生活犹如惊弓之鸟，城邦的正常运作也会因此大受影响。

When the black tide is relatively small in scale, we can temporarily diminish it by eliminating the monsters it spawns. However, if the monsters emerge faster than we can deploy forces to counter them, the black tide quickly expands beyond our ability to manage. This makes "assessing the black tide's scale" a critical challenge: If we underestimate it, a considerable number of our excellent warriors may die in vain due to overconfidence. Conversely, if we overestimate it, we will waste resources on relocating people and assets, which will inevitably disrupt normal life and cause unnecessary panic, thereby hampering the smooth functioning of the city-state.

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纵观翁法罗斯的各个城邦，应对黑潮比较得心应手的，无非是这样两种模式：

Among all the city-states of Amphoreus, two modes stand out for their relatively effective methods of countering the black tide:

（一）悬锋城

(I) Castrum Kremnos

这个大家都了解，就是我们可以利用悬锋城的机动性，主动布控军队，尽可能在源头上铲除新出现的黑潮。虽然目前来看，仰仗我们高效的军事调动能力，这一模式可谓行之有效；但历次战役中逐渐增加的伤亡数量也在提醒我们，即使拥有尼卡多利的庇护，悬锋城能否一直在这种战争中获胜，其实是要打一个问号的。

We are all familiar with this situation: We utilize the great mobility of Castrum Kremnos to deploy forces proactively, aiming to subdue the black tide as soon as it appears. While this approach has proven effective due to our efficient military mobilization, the steadily increasing casualties in each battle serve as a grim reminder that even with Nikador's blessings, whether Castrum Kremnos can consistently win such wars remains an open question.

（二）奥赫玛

(II) Okhema

从悬锋族人的角度看，奥赫玛似乎完全没做什么——他们只是躲在刻法勒的背后，过着从黄金世延续下来的生活，没有丝毫的危机感和荣誉感。但笔者在这里需要指出，「不耻于利用自己的优势」是奥赫玛人一贯的精明之处，尽管在对抗黑潮的斗争中，他们付出的代价远比我们要少，但却能得到非常接近于我们的成果。（只要代入奥赫玛人的视角，不把躲藏在刻法勒身边当作一个缺陷，笔者相信，各位应该能够同意这个结论。）

To the Kremnoans, the Okhemans seem to have done nothing at all. They simply hide behind Kephale, as if they were still living in the Era Chrysea, with no sense of crisis or honor. However, I must point out that the Okhemans' wit lies exactly in leveraging their strengths without shame. They achieved a result similar to ours in battling against the black tide, but at a much smaller cost. (Seen from their perspective, their reliance on the protection of Kephale is hardly a flaw, a point I believe most would agree with.)

通过总结，我们不难看出，悬锋城与它的对手奥赫玛，在应对黑潮的问题上其实各有所长，既有优势、也有不足。稍有常识的人都能明白，这种结构性的缺点，不可能通过短期内的一些措施就轻而易举的优化——但黑潮的威胁就在那里，我们无法排除这样一种可能：它在短时间内就会成长到连尼卡多利都无法单独应对的程度。

To sum up, both Castrum Kremnos and its rival city, Okhema, have their own strengths and shortcomings in confronting the black tide. Obviously, it doesn't take a man of extraordinary wit to realize that the deep-rooted systemic flaws cannot be fixed with temporary measures in no time. Yet the black tide's threat persists, and it's growing so fast that we suspect soon even Nikador won't be able to handle it alone.

有鉴于此，我们得出了下面这个结论：

Given the above-mentioned analysis, we may reach the following conclusion:

在黑潮变得足够强大之前，必须有人将悬锋城和奥赫玛的力量整合起来（其余城邦的实力基本可以忽略不计）。而想做到这一点，无非通过以下三种方式：

Before the black tide grows too powerful to handle, we must unite the power of Castrum Kremnos and Okhema. The smaller cities won't make much of a difference. We have three possible ways to achieve this:

（一）悬锋城吞并奥赫玛，完全支配奥赫玛的资源和优势；

1. Castrum Kremnos annexes Okhema, taking full control of its resources and strengths.

（二）奥赫玛吞并悬锋城，完全支配悬锋城的资源和优势；

2. Okhema annexes Castrum Kremnos, taking full control of its resources and strengths.

（三）悬锋城和奥赫玛合并成一个具有悬锋精神的联合城邦。

3. Castrum Kremnos and Okhema merge into a united entity with the spirit of Kremnos.

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